MGP emerges from primary in good shape, but November victory far from guaranteed

Incumbent Southwest Washington congresswoman still has big cash advantage over challenger Joe Kent as they head for rematch of 2022 contest

Southwest Washington Congresswoman Marie Glusenkamp Perez will again face MAGA Republican Joe Kent in a rematch of their closely fought 2022 campaign, but MGP emerged from Tuesday’s primary in stronger position than she did two years ago.

According to Tuesday’s returns, the Skamania Democrat captured 46.87 % of the districtwide vote, besting Kent (38.32%) and Camas Republican Leslie Lewallen (12.43%).

MGP won five of seven counties in the 3rd District, including Cowlitz, Wahkiakum and Pacific. Significantly, she also won Clark County — which has by far the lion’s share of the 3rd District electorate — with 51.36% of the vote. Two years ago, when MGP emerged from obscurity as a Portland auto repair shop owner to score the nation’s biggest political upset, she won 35.9% of the Clark primary tally.

The freshman congresswoman also bested Kent in Cowlitz County, which is Trump territory, winning 43.2% of the tally to 42.5% for Kent.

Still, the contest is expected to be another cliffhanger because it could again decide control of the House of Representatives. Republicans now have a 219-213 majority. MGP won the 2022 race by less than 1% of the tally.

Her strong showing does come with some caveats for MGP.

Unlike Kent, she did not have to fight off a challenger from within her own party.

In 2022, Kent had to beat off a well-funded and spirited primary challenge from fellow Republican Heidi St. John, depleted his campaign reserves. This year, Lewallen did not attract an equal amount of money and votes as St. John did two years ago, leaving Kent in a better financial position for the stretch run to November.

Lewallen, a Camas councilwoman and former King County prosecutor, has announced she will endorse Kent. She portrayed herself as less divisive alternative to Kent who could nevertheless fight for Trump’s agenda.

The 3rd District was reliably blue territory for a half century until 2010, when moderate Republican Jamie Herrera Beutler won the position. The Clark County Republican held it until 2022, when she was voted out in the primary largely due to GOP ire over her vote to impeach former President Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection.

The district leans Republican but is more “purple,” and the outcome of MGP-Kent II could depend again on how many moderate Republicans vote for Gluesenkamp Perez.

Following Tuesday night’s ballot count, MGP immediately went on the attack in a prepared statement, calling Kent “the same strange, angry, dangerous, bonafide white nationalist I defeated last time. Joe Kent is still too extreme for Southwest Washington, and I'm once again the only thing standing between Joe Kent and a seat in Congress.”

She says Kent wants to ban all abortions, end vote by mail, ban all immigration for 20 years “to secure a white racial majority, while opposing bipartisan legislation to secure the Southern Border and combat fentanyl. Again, he is on tape saying so.”

Kent has defended the Jan. 6 insurrectionists, saying - without citing any evidence - that it “reeks of an intelligence operation,” and he wants to put Dr. Antony Fauci on trial for murder over the COVID pandemic, MGP said.

MGP has portrayed hersef as a moderate — she has one of the most bipartian voting records in Congress, according to the Lugar Center and the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy. She has been highly critical of the Biden administration’s border policies and was one of the early Congressional members to urge the president to drop out of the 2024 campaign.

Kent has tried to portray MGP as a liberal and has railed against inflation, immigration, transgender issues and parental rights, according to news accounts. He opposes U.S. military aid to Ukraine and worries the nation is getting too involved in the Israel-Hamas war.

The race is expected to again generate a huge amount of campaign spending, and it already has.

As of July 17, MGP’s campaign had raised $6.7 million and had $3.8 million in cash on hand after spending nearly $3 million, according to reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission. Kent had raised $1.36 million, had spent $833,000 and $585,000 on hand. He had another $62,000 available through the Joe Kent Victory Fund.

Both parties are likely to throw piles of money into the race. So buckle your seat belts: You’re going to hear and see a lot of campaign ads, a lot of it hostile.