MGP's rematch victory margin over Joe Kent six times larger than in 2022

Calling on Republican crossovers: Why did at least some of you vote for the Democratic incumbent? What must she do to retain your support in 2026?

What a difference two years made for Southwest Washington Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

With virtually all ballots now counted, MGP defeated Trump-backed Republican Joe Kent by nearly 16,400 votes, winning a rematch of their narrow 2022 race by a comfortable margin.

MGP’s 2024 margin is more than six times her 2,629-vote victory in 2022, when she shocked the national political world to upset Kent.

As in 2022, she won largely because she swamped Kent by a landslide in Clark County, where 65% of the 3rd District’s 414,000 ballots were cast and where MGP won 56% of the vote.

Also as in 2022, she also lost Cowlitz, Lewis, Skamania, Wahkiakum and Thurston counties, though she again won Pacific County.

However, her share of the vote in 2024 increased by small or modest amounts in every county in the 3rd District. The two biggest jumps came in conservative-leaning Lewis County — where MGP won 35.07% of the vote in 2022 and 39.09% this year — and Pacific County, where her share went up from 50.9% in 2022 to 53.2%. this November.

Her percentage improved by a single point in Clark County, but the large number of voters there padded MGP’s lead.

What led her to a more comfortable victory this time around, when all the pollsters and pundits were expecting a close race?

As in 2022, the Washougal Democrat clearly attracted some moderate Republicans. Even in counties she lost, MGP outperformed other Democrats, including Democratic presidential and gubernatorial nominees Kamala Harris and Bob Ferguson. So some voters who cast ballots for Trump and Dave Reichert obviously crossed over to vote for MGP.

Post-election commentary and speculation have emphasized MGP’s bipartisanship, including her demand for better border security and unwavering commitment to Israel in the Gaza war — positions that undermined some liberal support.

I suspect she owes her win to her focus on district and constituent needs, her focus on blue-collar employment, and her continued support for gun and reproductive rights.

But there also is an often underrated factor: Her obvious sincerity and work ethic. People here like see their lawmakers on the ground in action, and MGP crossed and recrossed the district, making forays even into counties where she was not popular in 2022.

Character and personality were often cited as a strength for her predecessor, Jaime Herrera Beutler, who was elected to the seat five times.

While MGP met with farmers, mill workers, cops, firefighters, drug counselors and other real people of the district, Kent, by contrast, flip-flopped on abortion, kept defending the January 6 insurrectionists and kept company with extremists.

But all these reasons, too, are speculation on my part. I’d like to hear from voters who voted for MGP in 2022 or 2024 but who voted for Trump in either of those years. They were clear difference makers again in 2024.

Some of the questions I’d like to pose: Why have you supported MGP and shunned Kent? What were the major factors or issues persuading you? How much did political factors — such as control of the House of Representatives — play into your vote? What must MGP do to retain your vote in 2026?

If there is enough interest, I will write a column about the responses in the next two weeks or so. Please email me at andrestep@comcast.net and we’ll set up a time to talk.

Everyone, as usual, is welcome to chime in with story comments below.